Kept has received international accreditation for the validation and verification of greenhouse gas claims

By August 1, 2026, 127 climate projects were registered in the Russian Carbon Units (CU) Registry with a potential issuance of 109 million CUs. This means that this is the amount of units companies can generate throughout the implementation period of their initiatives. Over the year, the number of projects almost doubled, and the planned volume of CU generation grew by 19%. This data is contained in a new study by the auditing and consulting company Kept, "Overview of the Russian Carbon Market: Current Status, New Drivers, and Regulatory Changes." However, the key challenge remains a structural imbalance – a significant excess of CU supply over demand.

According to analysts, the market is entering a new phase: companies have already accumulated experience in launching and verifying climate projects, have begun to issue CUs faster, and are trying new models for their application. At the same time, the main buyer of units remains a limited circle of participants in the Sakhalin experiment – a pilot project to limit greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality in the Sakhalin Region, which started in 2022. Business perceives the issuance of CUs primarily as preparation for future mandatory regulation – for example, the possible introduction of carbon emission quotas, increased requirements for non-financial reporting, etc., experts note.

Tool for business

The CU system has ceased to be "academic and artificial" and is increasingly linked to production practice, says Ruslan Gazatulin, Managing Director of the petrochemical company Sibur. The climate market is important not in itself, but as a tool to support the decarbonization initiatives of business, the expert added. "A positive environmental effect can be turned into a real product that is sold," he stressed, speaking at an event dedicated to the presentation of the study.

Gazatulin suggested evaluating the carbon market by its applied value for business: for example, for launching climate projects, protection against greenwashing claims (greenwashing is a marketing practice in which a company creates a false impression among consumers about its environmental responsibility or exaggerates it – Vedomosti. Sustainable Development), etc. Russian regulation, the expert stressed, should not blindly copy foreign analogs – adaptation to the national economy and expansion of export potential are necessary.

For Sibur, working with CUs is both managing risks associated with future regulation and obtaining commercial benefits, said Nadezhda Galaktionova, Director for Sustainable Development at the company. "We see the benefit not only in risk mitigation but also in additional value for sales; we perceive CUs as a commodity," she said. The company, according to her, reserves part of the CUs for its own climate goals, uses them to compensate for the residual footprint along with green certificates, and tests new demand models. Among them are offsetting the footprint of events, transport partnerships, and the market potential of products with a reduced carbon footprint.

In the first seven months of 2026, 37 projects with a planned issuance of 8.36 million CUs appeared in the registry, noted the Kept review. The main growth is provided by initiatives for energy efficiency and optimization of production processes in the oil and gas and energy sectors: modernization of compressor and pumping stations, reduction of fuel and energy resource losses, implementation of energy-saving solutions, authors specify. Of the 109 million CUs registered in the registry, 37.6 million are already in circulation, said Oksana Gogunskaya, General Director of AO Kontur (operator of the state CU registry in Russia). According to her, the oil and gas sector and energy efficiency projects remain the engine of growth, but the circle of participants is expanding: in 2026, initiatives from cement industry enterprises, hydropower, the agro-sector, and information technology (IT) appeared in the registry.

In particular, the first project in the digital sector was registered – the construction of a data center for the MTS company with an energy-efficient cooling system, Gogunskaya said. More complex carbon sequestration projects are also developing: the construction of carbon farms, soil recarbonization, cultivation of industrial hemp, and capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) at tailings (storage sites for mining waste – Vedomosti. Sustainable Development). So far, 110 out of 127 projects (87%) are still aimed at reducing emissions rather than absorbing them.

Currently, different methodologies are used for different types of climate projects, so CUs from different projects are not always easy to compare, experts noted. Gogunskaya believes that the next step for the carbon market will be the unification of rules. "The buyer will understand that they are the same for all projects and will choose not 'which one is better' but the area they want to support with their ruble," the expert said. In her estimation, it is the transition from independent methodologies to standardization that will help scale projects and strengthen trust in the quality of CUs.

Sakhalin reduction

As the authors of the study noted, most offsets of large volumes of CUs are made by companies participating in the Sakhalin experiment. In its second period (2025–2026), the number of organizations that exceeded emission quotas decreased from 12 to four, and the volume of excesses decreased by more than half, to 67,800 tons of CO2 equivalent. To offset emissions, enterprises purchased about 63,000 CUs, while Quota Fulfillment Units (QFUs), i.e., remaining quota surpluses, were practically not used. This shows that CUs still remain a more liquid and accessible tool for market participants, while QFU holders prefer to save them for future obligations, the authors of the report conclude.

Vladimir Lukin, Partner in the Operational Risk and Sustainability group at Kept, noted that in 2026 the number of transactions and the volume of units sold actually halved. Last year, more than 90% of offsets accounted for the compensation of obligations within the Sakhalin experiment. Now the circle of its participants has narrowed, which naturally led to a drop in demand.

A survey of 18 companies that have already registered climate projects allows us to understand the logic of their behavior against the background of a growing number of initiatives and declining demand, Lukin said. According to him, the main motive for launching is the possible introduction of mandatory regulation. In second place is future income from the sale of CUs, followed by offsetting their own carbon footprint and reputational benefits. At the same time, none of those surveyed stated an intention to scale back projects due to the tightening of rules: market participants are rather adapting to new conditions than scaling back activity.

Lukin estimated the current price range in the Russian carbon market at 700–1,000 rubles per ton of CO2 equivalent (the cost of one CU – Vedomosti. Sustainable Development). This is a high figure by world standards, the expert noted. But for the market, not only the nominal price is important, but the seller's confidence that the units can be realized. "If companies see that this is a liquid commodity and there is demand, then we will be able to calculate the real effect," Lukin said.

The Sakhalin experiment showed that despite the availability of QFUs, companies continued to use CUs for compensation, experts noted. Thus, in 2026, one of the participants used 1,000 QFUs purchased a year earlier at a price of 200 rubles per unit and additionally acquired about 59,000 CUs on the voluntary market. This case illustrates the continuing preference of experiment participants for CUs as the main offsetting tool, the report's authors believe. This, in their opinion, can be explained by several factors. First, the voluntary CU market has a more developed infrastructure and transparent circulation procedures, which is especially important for small enterprises that have less established mechanisms for interacting with counterparties. Second, QFU-holding enterprises often prefer to accumulate these units to provide offsets in future periods. Thus, even with a significant volume of QFUs in circulation, their liquidity remains limited, and CUs continue to serve as a more universal and accessible tool for covering quota obligations.

Focus on the international market

Another potential source of demand for Russian CUs could be the international market. However, according to experts, it is also currently facing an oversupply.

Ekaterina Salugina-Sorokovaya, First Vice President of Gazprombank, pointed out that the global voluntary CU market is going through a difficult period: the average CU price is about $6, and the volume of cancellations in 2025 was 174 million tons with an issuance of 313 million tons. Without external incentives, voluntary interest, in her estimation, will not become mass. She considers the CORSIA mechanism (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation – Vedomosti. Sustainable Development) a potential source of market demand.

According to Salugina-Sorokovaya's forecast, in 2030–2035, about 500 million tons could be in demand under CORSIA. Another more than 1 billion tons could potentially be formed through the fulfillment of national climate commitments of countries. At the same time, prices within such mechanisms can range from $20 to $100 per unit, depending on the supply-demand ratio and the quality of climate projects.

"In the absence of domestic regulation, the only chance for Russian climate projects is to do them at the highest level and achieve international recognition," the expert stressed. As Vedomosti. Sustainable Development wrote, Russia applied to include the national system in CORSIA in March 2026; a decision is expected in the fourth quarter.

Demand Drivers

In addition to international mechanisms, additional demand may form within Russia – from consumers and producers.

The Kept study states that in 2026, the first CU offsets in the interests of individuals became regular. Their scale is still small – 220 units versus 246,000 offset overall, Lukin noted. Nevertheless, this segment is important as a possible source of demand independent of quotas, he added. According to a survey of companies, 85% of respondents would like to know their carbon footprint, but only 2% had calculated it; about 40% are ready to compensate for emissions if the procedure is simple and inexpensive.

Analysts consider built-in carbon footprint compensation when purchasing tickets, goods, or services to be the most promising. According to the authors of the review, if at least 1% of air and rail passengers take advantage of this option, the annual market demand could reach 290,000–340,000 CUs – more than all offsets in the registry in its entire history.

Another driver of CU demand is the carbon footprint of products. First, a company must reduce emissions through modernization, energy efficiency, and the use of low-carbon energy, and then offset the residual footprint with units, the review notes. According to the authors, this sequence does not replace decarbonization with the purchase of CUs but turns them into the final element of a product strategy. However, for its mass application, unified methodologies for calculating the product footprint and recognized standards are needed, the document says.

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This overview is the second annual report dedicated to the analysis of the Russian voluntary carbon market. Prepared in 2025, the first overview recorded the state of the market and laid the foundation for systematic monitoring of its evolution. It examined the prerequisites for the formation of a voluntary emission trading system (VETS), analyzed the status of the VETS and the results of the Sakhalin experiment as a key demand driver, and proposed three market development scenarios until 2035 with quantitative forecasts for demand, supply, and pricing — the inertial scenario, the external demand scenario, and the internal demand scenario.

Over the past year, the Russian carbon market has undergone significant changes in both quantitative and qualitative parameters. The supply of carbon units (CU) continues to grow, the circle of participants is expanding, new types of climate projects are appearing, and the regulatory environment has been supplemented by a number of important regulatory legal acts, which will be analyzed in detail in this overview.

The carbon market overview will be published on a regular basis so that market participants, regulators, and other stakeholders receive up-to-date analytics and forecasts. This overview has been supplemented with new sections reflecting the changes that have occurred. It analyzes which forecasts came true, which trends strengthened, and assesses the impact of new regulatory decisions and international obligations. We hope that the analysis presented will help market participants and regulators make informed decisions amid the ongoing development of national carbon regulation.

You can read the full version of the study at the link.

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The Government Adjusted the Procedure for Maintaining the Carbon Unit Registry

Starting March 1, 2027, a unified buffer account will appear in the Russian carbon unit (CU) registry. Units from climate projects with risks of re-release of greenhouse gases will be credited to it. This will provide future foreign CU buyers with a guarantee that units purchased under such projects will not be canceled in case of, for example, CO2 emission due to fire. The implementation of the mechanism increases the chances of international recognition of Russian carbon units for their use in CORSIA (a global project to reduce emissions in aviation) and the mechanisms of the Paris Agreement.

The Government has adopted a decree on the rules for conducting operations with carbon units using a buffer account in the corresponding registry. Such units will be conserved on it if there are risks of "unplanned" re-release of greenhouse gases for a launched climate project (activities to reduce emissions or increase their absorption by natural systems). We note that this refers to projects within the framework of international cooperation.

Carbon units are verified results of the implementation of climate projects, taking into account the mass of greenhouse gases "saved" during production. Companies that have issued CUs can both offset their emissions with them (i.e., count them towards their allocated quotas) and sell them to less green enterprises to compensate for their carbon footprint. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, as of August 12, 2026, 132 climate projects are registered in the special registry, with 37 million carbon units in circulation, 1.2 million of which were issued in 2026.

For projects with a risk of greenhouse gas release (forest-climate, wetland restoration, agroforestry, and others), there is always a risk that the carbon absorbed by such systems will return to the atmosphere — for example, due to a fire. The buffer account specified in the adopted decree should act as insurance: if the verifier confirms the fact of gas release, the corresponding number of units is debited from the reserve and canceled. The date for the new rules to come into force is March 1, 2027.

The Ministry has already applied for recognition of the Russian program in CORSIA. It is reported that in the future it is planned to supplement it with natural climate projects, for which it is necessary to take such risks into account. The emergence of the buffering mechanism, the ministry notes, increases the chances of ICAO approval of the Russian application.

The carbon market in Russia has been functioning for four years, it is improving, but in general, it is still an internal development story, notes Oksana Gogunskaya, General Director of JSC Kontur (operator of the CU registry). According to her, the appearance of the buffer account indicates Russia's readiness to make a name for itself on the international market. The mechanism is a guarantee to foreign buyers that the units purchased for such projects will not be canceled in the event of, for example, a re-emission of CO2 as a result of a fire on the climate project site. Such a risk management mechanism is widespread in world practice.

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LLC MIP "NES Profexpert" (Limited Liability Company Small Innovative Enterprise "NES Profexpert"), whose founder is the Almetyevsk State Technical University "Higher School of Petroleum," has become the first—and to date the only—Russian organization to be accredited as a Designated Operational Entity (DOE) under the Article 6.4 mechanism of the Paris Agreement.

This status entitles the company to perform independent validation and verification/certification of climate projects in accordance with UNFCCC requirements. The accreditation has been obtained for 15 out of 17 possible sectoral scopes, including energy, industry, construction, transport, agriculture and forestry, as well as waste management.

Currently, only 18 organizations worldwide hold DOE status, and "NES Profexpert" is the only company from Russia included in this list. This opens up new opportunities for operating in the international carbon credit market and confirms that the company's expertise meets the highest global standards.

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